Specific Editions of the GIGA Focus Series

AI is reshaping work: low-skilled jobs may disappear while high-skill roles concentrate in a handful of countries. Without new social safety nets and large-scale reskilling, billions risk being sidelined as AI overwhelmingly rewards those who already have power, infrastructure, and digital access.

China’s Global Security Initiative projects its stability-focused security model abroad. How do East Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East perceive the GSI? What does this mean for the future of the international security order? And how should Germany and the EU best respond?

Social media is often blamed for a recent trend of protest failure. We look into the youth-led iterations occurring from Asia to Africa to Latin America in recent years, their ultimate outcomes, and how social media has served to inspire and connect protest movements across countries and continents.

Democratic decline is neither a given nor set in stone once occurring. Many countries have recovered and strengthened civic rights, even after acute episodes of autocratisation and amid a global crisis of democracy. Recognising these successes calls for the support of pro-democracy actors worldwide.

The International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a test of Germany’s oft-stated commitment to global rules and norms. Berlin should uphold the rule of law by choosing principles over politics.

AI governance is shifting, with national priorities outweighing global coordination. To uphold its leadership in rights-respecting and innovation-friendly AI, the European Union must strengthen its domestic capabilities, expand international partnerships, and assert its regulatory influence.

Geopolitical rivalry with China, the collapse of Russia as a trading partner, and the radical paradigm shift in US foreign policy under Trump evince a core truth: Germany needs reliable partners in the Global South. How can the incoming government best respond? Four trends to note are outlined.

Religion is crucial to understanding the violent clashes occurring between nomadic pastoralists and sedentary farmers over land and water in Nigeria. Neglecting this dimension prevents a holistic understanding of the crisis taking hold, hindering the development of effective and lasting solutions.

Africa enters 2026 at a crossroads: entrenched autocrats clash with Gen Z protests, debt crises threaten major economies, Western retreat meets Chinese and Russian expansion. Yet African states will seek to leverage critical minerals and strategic partnerships to assert agency amid global rivalries.

From e-commerce platforms to AI, digital technologies have the potential to make Africa’s agricultural value chains more efficient, transparent, and interconnected. However, widespread implementation requires collaboration between the private and public sectors.

Digital technology promises to fix sub-Saharan Africa’s electoral flaws. Instead, breakdowns, opaque procurement deals, and courtroom battles reveal how the turn to technology is actually reinforcing old problems rather than delivering integrity. These solvable issues are examined in detail.

The recent diversification of external actors present in Africa has served to increase the agency of its governments but may also bolster poor governance and fuel conflict in the long run. Western powers must clarify their priorities regarding goals and partners, as well as examine own biases here.

Carbon offset projects promise to benefit both climate mitigation and rural communities in the Global South. Evidence from Madagascar, however, showcases that three key constraints pose a challenge to the development potential of nature-based offsets in the voluntary carbon market.

Rethinking development policy: dismantling it would be fatal - it serves German interests and secures global goods. But “business as usual” is not enough: coordination and genuine partnerships with the Global South are necessary. Europe must create a more effective, multilateral offer.

In 2026, trade negotiations with the US and EU will need to be balanced by India with the demands of its BRICS presidency amid a shifting global order. Complex ties with China and the US, state elections, and tensions with the South Asian country’s diverse neighbours will test the ruling government.

What went wrong with two decades of EU aid in Afghanistan and what must change? The Study Commission and Committee of Inquiry highlighted key failures. Drawing on interviews and multilayered Afghan perspectives, new insights and concrete policy recommendations for future aid intervention are given.

Ten months since Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, Bangladesh’s interim government is racing against time to deliver key institutional reforms ahead of elections to be held by June 2026. Intense political competition between new and old actors risks hindering the changes required for democratic transition.

South Korea’s 2024 self-coup attempt marked its gravest democratic crisis in decades. The brief imposition of martial law exposed deep flaws in civil–military relations and elite polarisation – yet also revealed the surprising resilience of Korea’s democratic institutions.

The AUKUS security pact between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom aims at providing greater security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. But can it really work? Explained is the exact nature of this pact and in highlighting the risks and challenges for all parties involved.

Four years after the military coup in Myanmar, the EU needs to rethink its strategy and increase support for those fighting the junta. A stronger resistance is the only thing that will bring the military to the negotiating table and thus increase the chances of putting an end to the conflict.

President Marcos Jr. has been driving the digital transformation of the Philippines since 2022. Internet infrastructure and cybersecurity are undergoing improvements as part of an effort to position the country as a digital leader, with key collaborations involving Germany, Japan, and the World Bank.

Latin America has emerged as a strategic partner for the EU in its efforts to diversify imports of critical raw materials with a view to safeguarding the energy transition, mitigating supply chain vulnerabilities, and reducing structural dependencies in the digital, defence, and aerospace sectors.

Ahead of a Lula–Trump meeting, Brazil is pushing the US to scrap its punitive 50 per cent tariffs. Balancing autonomy and dependence, Lula is rallying state and business interests and pushing an EU–Mercosur deal, seeking to gain leverage through multilateralism and transcend the false US–China dichotomy.

Trump’s ultra-aggressive claim to South America as the United States’ exclusive zone of influence changes the region’s political coordinates. The GIGA analyses the ongoing stand-off in Venezuela, the role of China, Latin America’s upcoming elections, and other key events and trends to watch in 2026.

The US military buildup along Venezuela’s coast has raised expectations that Maduro’s regime will collapse under pressure. However, this would probably not result in a democratic transition. Even if Maduro is forced to step down, a change of guard within the regime remains the more likely scenario.

Converging economic interests provide the foundations for EU–Latin America strategic alignment but must translate into tangible outcomes beyond summit diplomacy. Genuine strategic partnership requires an expanded bi-regional agenda, including closer cooperation in the fields of defence and security.

Bolivia’s presidential elections mark a watershed moment: After two decades of single-party dominance, two liberal opposition contenders in the 19 October runoff. Whoever wins must balance urgent economic adjustments with social protection to avoid renewed conflict.

Across the Americas, child labour policies vary. Business interest groups push for legalisation; working children’s organisations seek regulation to secure worker protections; the ILO calls for prohibition. Social policy strategy and children’s participation are essential to addressing the issue.

Europe plays a limited role in Gulf investments and the geopolitical considerations behind them. International mediation is urgently required in Gaza and Sudan. Lebanon and Syria are threatened by fragmentation. We present ten things set to inform events in the Middle East and North Africa in 2026.

A survey conducted in August 2025 found that the majority of people living in Germany support a foreign policy towards Gaza and Israel that is guided by international law and seeks to uphold universal human rights. Details on our findings and their implications are outlined and discussed.

Once hailed as the “Turkish model” for its successful merging of Islam and democracy, Turkey has morphed into a global cocaine hub. Turkish students and holidaymakers are denied Schengen visas, yet the country’s mafias and narcotics cross Europe’s borders with ease.

On 13 June 2025, Israel launched a 12-day war against Iran, two days before the sixth round of US–Iran nuclear talks were due to begin in Oman. Analysis is provided of how the war has transformed Iranian politics domestically, regionally, and internationally.

Does the fall of Assad in Syria mean the end of the drug known as Captagon? No. While the Islamist interim government has destroyed drug laboratories and pills, demand for cheap drugs remains strong in Syria and in its neighbouring countries. Captagon production and smuggling are transnationalising.

As conflicts reshape the MENA region, the new German government must balance diplomacy, security, and economics. From Syria to the Gulf, explored are Germany’s strategic options on leveraging EU cooperation, managing authoritarian shifts, and driving energy transitions for long-term stability.

From the Gaza War and ethnic conflicts in Lebanon and Syria to the significance of a second Trump administration for the region, the MENA remains of central importance for Europe. We present ten topics that will play a prominent role in relations between the two regions in the year ahead.