The AUKUS Pact: More of a Costly Signal than Effective Deterrence

In 2021, Canberra, London, and Washington announced the AUKUS security pact on nuclear-powered submarines for Australia and cooperation on new technologies with military applications. It remains intact under the second Trump administration: in early 2025, Canberra made a first payment to help uplift the US submarine industrial basis. The pact’s implementation as a whole is, however, questionable.

• In the short to medium term, AUKUS the pact exerts no deterrent effect vis-à-vis the People’s Republic of China or other states. Even if things work out optimally, the first submarines will be delivered to Australia only in the 2030s.

• How many, if any at all, nuclear-powered submarines the US and the UK will be able to deliver to Australia is unclear. The political risks and industrial challenges involved in their trilateral security cooperation are high, also given that naval shipyards for submarines in the US and the UK are having difficulties meeting domestic demand.

• Building, maintaining and overhauling, as well as manning the future nuclear-powered submarines also constitute huge challenges for Australia in terms of personnel, training, and research.

Policy Implications

The AUKUS pact is primarily a costly foreign policy signal. The three partners are seeking to demonstrate their resolve to meaningfully respond to the military threat posed by the PRC. Canberra is binding itself even closer to the US in security terms. This portends substantial challenges and political risks for Australia, one of Germany’s few genuine values-based partners in the Indo-Pacific.

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