The Fall of Assad: Rebels Take Power in Syria

The pandemic altered the opportunity structures of state and non-state armed actors, exacerbated grievances, prompted new investments in services provision, and created new spaces for cooperation, thereby affecting the dynamics of violence across different dimensions and time horizons.

The violent escalation in most of Syria since 2023 and the continuation of the Assad dictatorship suggest that nowhere in the country is safe. Outlined are the key details to this. Any plans to forcibly return Syrian refugees from Middle Eastern and European countries should therefore be rejected.

Syria is increasingly being presented by right-wing populist governments and parties across Europe as a supposedly “safe place” to which to deport and return refugees. GIGA experts Dr. André Bank and Dr. Christiane Fröhlich argue against this based on their respective in-depth analyses.

Nach fast 14 Jahren Krieg, in denen die Hoffnung auf Heimkehr für die meisten der 12 Millionen geflüchteten Syrer:innen nahezu erloschen war, hat der plötzliche Sturz des Diktators Bashar al-Assad Euphorie ausgelöst – nicht nur in Syrien, sondern auch in den Nachbarländern und weltweit.

In nur zehn Tagen haben aufständische Gruppen unter Führung der islamistischen HTS die Diktatur von Präsident Assad gestürzt. Syrer:innen weltweit feiern und eine Rückkehr scheint in greifbare Nähe gerückt. Doch wie sieht die Zukunft Syriens aus? GIGA-Expert:innen diskutieren. Video jetzt verfügbar.

As of the end of 2019, the regime under President Bashar al-Assad, along with Russia and Iran, controls almost three-quarters of Syrian territory. Despite ongoing fighting for the last-remaining rebel stronghold of Idlib as well as fragmented territorial control in the north-east, the war in Syria has been decided militarily.

The pandemic altered the opportunity structures of state and non-state armed actors, exacerbated grievances, prompted new investments in services provision, and created new spaces for cooperation, thereby affecting the dynamics of violence across different dimensions and time horizons.

The violent escalation in most of Syria since 2023 and the continuation of the Assad dictatorship suggest that nowhere in the country is safe. Outlined are the key details to this. Any plans to forcibly return Syrian refugees from Middle Eastern and European countries should therefore be rejected.

Syria is increasingly being presented by right-wing populist governments and parties across Europe as a supposedly “safe place” to which to deport and return refugees. GIGA experts Dr. André Bank and Dr. Christiane Fröhlich argue against this based on their respective in-depth analyses.