Syria: Safe Return?

Right-wing populist governments and parties across Europe repeatedly use acts of violence committed by supporters of Islamist organisations, such as the recent attack in Solingen, Germany, to undermine the right to asylum and demand stricter deportation regimes. In this context, Syria is also increasingly being presented as a supposedly “safe place” to which the deportation and repatriation of refugees can occur.

Against this backdrop, GIGA experts Dr. André Bank and Dr. Christiane Fröhlich provide their assessments of the situation in the country, the circumstances facing both the civilian population and Syrian refugees abroad, and offer recommendations for German and European policy. Both have been working on and with Syria and its people for many years now. Dr. André Bank focuses on the development of the civil war and the dynamics of authoritarian rule there, while Dr. Christiane Fröhlich pays particular attention to Syrian refugees’ current predicament.

What is the current political and military situation in Syria? How safe is the country for the civilian population?

GIGA Expert Dr. André Bank:

“As of 2024, Syria is divided into four political-military spheres of power:

(1) President Bashar al-Assad and his regime, supported by Iran and Russia, dominate about 60 per cent of the country and with it a population of some 9.6 million people. In these areas, the brutal dictatorship continues: disappearances, torture, and murder still occur on a massive scale. This has been compounded in recent years by an unprecedented economic crisis in the areas of central, southern, and western Syria under regime control since 2011.

(2) The northwestern region of Idlib is ruled over by the radical Islamist group Hay'at Tahrir ash-Sham. The Assad regime and Russia continue to bomb this area, the only remaining rebel stronghold, relentlessly from the air – in the shadow of the Gaza War, 160,000 people have been internally displaced.

(3) In northern Syria, Turkey and its ally the Syrian National Army occupy various geographic areas, many of which are home to Kurdish people.

(4) In the northeast, the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces hold power, supported by around 900 United States special forces. Together, they are subject to constant attack by pro-Iranian militias and their Syrian-Arab allies.

In short: the Syrian civilian population finds itself living under great precarity in all four of these areas. In most of them, the situation for families, women, and children has actually worsened since 2023.”  

What is the situation for Syrian refugees in Syria and the wider region?

GIGA Expert Dr. Christiane Fröhlich:

“The majority of Syrian refugees, almost seven million people strong, continue to live in the country as internally displaced persons (IDPs). Around five million more have lived in neighbouring Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey for over a decade now. These people have often had to flee several times, invested all their private resources in leaving their native country, and have lost everything in the process. Even before the earthquake of February 2023, a good two-thirds of the Syrian civilian population were dependent on humanitarian aid; since then, the situation has steadily worsened.

There has also been a deterioration in the life circumstances of those Syrians resident in neighbouring countries. In Lebanon, for example, the various crises – currency collapse, the economy nosediving, the Port of Beirut explosion in 2022, acute political issues, and similar – also affect Syrian refugees, who often find themselves on the margins of society to begin with. The Lebanese government is already implementing forced deportations to Syria and there are regular attacks on Syrian refugees in the country, even though it is supposed to be helping the European Union deal with the so-called refugee crisis.

In short, whatever term you use to name or justify it (deportation, repatriation, and so forth): forcibly sending people back to Syria, a country characterised by widespread destruction, ongoing violence, and conditions of extreme poverty for the overwhelming majority of the population, undermines humanitarian refugee protection. Germany has committed itself to upholding the latter as a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention. Where should these people even go? Does the German government want to talk to Assad, to the Kurdish self-administration, to the insurgents, or to the Islamists to organise such deportations? That would be a departure from the policy of the last 13 years, and also from that of important (NATO) allies.

Apart from that, the example of Solingen makes very clear that the discussion around deportation to Syria currently misses the point anyway – the Solingen attacker would have been deported to Bulgaria under the Dublin procedure. Would that have changed his Islamist views? Or would we simply not have cared if an attack had been carried out in Bulgaria or elsewhere instead?

Basically, deportations do not solve the problem of Islamist terror and male violence, they only postpone it.”

What recommendations ensue for German and European Syria policy?

Dr. André Bank and Dr. Christiane Fröhlich:  

“Given the extremely precarious situation in all parts of Syria, plans to forcibly repatriate refugees there should be explicitly rejected with immediate effect. They undermine humanitarian refugee protection and the right to asylum, to which all European states have committed themselves under the 1951 Refugee Convention. For Europe, this means opposing the governments of Austria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Italy, Malta, and Poland, which have declared parts of Syria “safe,” as this could lead to the forced repatriation of Syrians to their native country. In addition, the German government and the EU should put pressure on Syria’s neighbouring countries, especially Lebanon and Turkey, to stop such deportations already underway. At the same time, they should continue to support Syrians’ host countries in the Middle East with great urgency. Further, humanitarian aid to the northwest and northeast of Syria should be increased in working with local partners to reach the civilian population most in need.”