Syrien nach Assad – Szenarien zwischen Hoffnung und Angst
GIGA Forum
Syrien nach Assad – Szenarien zwischen Hoffnung und Angst
Date
11/12/2024
Start
06:00 p.m. (CET)
End
07:15 p.m. (CET)
Video Recording GIGA Forum Syrien, 11.12.
Innerhalb von nur zehn Tagen haben aufständische Gruppen, angeführt von der islamistischen Hay’at Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS), das Regime von Präsident Bashar al-Assad gestürzt. Der Diktator hat das Land verlassen, und anders als im Jahr 2015 haben weder Iran noch Russland eingegriffen. Weltweit feiern syrische Geflüchtete diesen historischen Moment, und eine Rückkehr in die Heimat scheint zum Greifen nah.
Doch wie sieht die Zukunft Syriens aus? Wird sich das Land unter den Aufständischen in ein islamistisches Regime wandeln, ähnlich wie Afghanistan unter den Taliban? Oder drohen Konflikte zwischen den verschiedenen bewaffneten Oppositionsgruppen? Welche Rolle könnten externe Akteure wie Russland, Iran oder die Türkei künftig spielen? Und vor allem: Welche Perspektiven ergeben sich für die syrische Zivilbevölkerung – insbesondere die 7 Millionen Binnenvertriebenen und die rund 5 Millionen Geflüchteten weltweit?
Referent:innen:Dr. André Bank ist Senior Research Fellow am GIGA Institut für Nahost-Studien.
Dr. Christiane Fröhlich ist Senior Research Fellow am GIGA Institut für Nahost-Studien.
Prof. Dr. Eckart Woertz ist Direktor des GIGA Instituts für Nahost-Studien.
Moderatorin:
Diba Mirzaei ist Doctoral Researcher am GIGA Institut für Nahost-Studien.
The violent escalation in most of Syria since 2023 and the continuation of the Assad dictatorship suggest that nowhere in the country is safe. Outlined are the key details to this. Any plans to forcibly return Syrian refugees from Middle Eastern and European countries should therefore be rejected.
As of the end of 2019, the regime under President Bashar al-Assad, along with Russia and Iran, controls almost three-quarters of Syrian territory. Despite ongoing fighting for the last-remaining rebel stronghold of Idlib as well as fragmented territorial control in the north-east, the war in Syria has been decided militarily.
After almost 14 years of war, during which the hope of returning home was all but extinguished for most of the 12 million Syrian refugees, the sudden fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad has triggered euphoria – not only in Syria, but also in neighbouring countries and around the world.
Opposition rebel groups have overthrown the Assad dictatorship in a very short space of time. GIGA expert Dr André Bank explains how this came about, what goals they are pursuing and what this means for Syria.
The violent escalation in most of Syria since 2023 and the continuation of the Assad dictatorship suggest that nowhere in the country is safe. Outlined are the key details to this. Any plans to forcibly return Syrian refugees from Middle Eastern and European countries should therefore be rejected.
As of the end of 2019, the regime under President Bashar al-Assad, along with Russia and Iran, controls almost three-quarters of Syrian territory. Despite ongoing fighting for the last-remaining rebel stronghold of Idlib as well as fragmented territorial control in the north-east, the war in Syria has been decided militarily.
After almost 14 years of war, during which the hope of returning home was all but extinguished for most of the 12 million Syrian refugees, the sudden fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad has triggered euphoria – not only in Syria, but also in neighbouring countries and around the world.
Opposition rebel groups have overthrown the Assad dictatorship in a very short space of time. GIGA expert Dr André Bank explains how this came about, what goals they are pursuing and what this means for Syria.
The violent escalation in most of Syria since 2023 and the continuation of the Assad dictatorship suggest that nowhere in the country is safe. Outlined are the key details to this. Any plans to forcibly return Syrian refugees from Middle Eastern and European countries should therefore be rejected.
As of the end of 2019, the regime under President Bashar al-Assad, along with Russia and Iran, controls almost three-quarters of Syrian territory. Despite ongoing fighting for the last-remaining rebel stronghold of Idlib as well as fragmented territorial control in the north-east, the war in Syria has been decided militarily.
After almost 14 years of war, during which the hope of returning home was all but extinguished for most of the 12 million Syrian refugees, the sudden fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad has triggered euphoria – not only in Syria, but also in neighbouring countries and around the world.
