1 August 2024
Venezuela at a Turning Point? The Elections and an Uncertain Future
On 28 July 2024, the people of Venezuela were called to elect a new president.
Despite the crisis-ridden state the country finds itself in, elections took place as scheduled. However, independent observers were excluded in advance by the incumbent President Nicolás Maduro, raising serious concerns about the fairness and freedom of the electoral process. The opposition, presenting a united front, campaigned for real change, sparking hope among the population.
After the election results were announced, disillusionment quickly spread. The National Electoral Council asserted that Venezuela’s long-standing ruler Maduro had won, yet no data or evidence was published to support this claim. The people are furious, and the opposition is mobilising to protest on the country’s streets.
The day after the elections, Venezuela experts discussed the current situation in a live event on X, analysing possible results, key outcomes, and their potential impacts on the country’s political and socio-economic landscape. The discussion featured expert opinions and scholarly perspectives, aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding of the elections’ implications for both national and regional dynamics.
Listen to the Spanish-language dialogue with Prof. Dr. Sabine Kurtenbach, Dr. Maryhen Jimenez Morales, Jesus Renzullo, and Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos here (X-Space, 29 July 2024):
To provide further insight also to English-speaking audiences, our experts spoke to three key questions in follow up:
The National Electoral Council of Venezuela has declared Maduro the winner. How should this announcement be assessed in terms of credibility and transparency?
GIGA Expert Prof. Dr. Sabine Kurtenbach:
“The declaration lacks any empirical basis, as the oversight body has not published the data able to verify this claim. In Venezuela and internationally, calls are increasing to make the tallies public (as the government is in any case supposed to do per Venezuelan law). Hence, the fraud does not consist of stuffing votes in a box but rather of not publishing the actual recordings of the country’s electoral machines. However, there are rumours that the government is about to fake the printouts, as they obviously see that they need to provide ‘data.’ Experts say this fraud can be easily detected, as results are encrypted. Another major fraud lies in the lack of possibilities for Venezuelan migrants to vote (just 1 per cent of the close to 8 million concerned could do so) and in the disqualification of opposition candidates, most notably María Corina Machado, the winner of the opposition primaries.”
The opposition presented a united front and aimed for a fresh start. What remains of the hope for meaningful change for the Venezuelan people post-election?
Dr. Maryhen Jiménez Morales from the University of Oxford:
“Despite increased repression towards traditional opposition actors, particularly María Corina Machado, the winner of the opposition primaries in October 2023, opponents managed to coordinate around a joint candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia. After years of division over strategy formation – boycott versus participation in elections – the opposition converged on the decision to participate and vote, despite unfair conditions. This allowed millions of Venezuelans to channel their energy and discontent towards a common cause. Following the results announced by the electoral authority, people from diverse backgrounds, including underprivileged communities, are demanding that their votes be respected. The challenge in the times ahead will be to maintain momentum and coalesce around the legitimate demand of verifying the vote and respecting society’s desire for change.”
Read detailed analysis by Maryhen hereInternational observers were excluded from the elections at short notice. What has been the international reaction, and how have regional governments responded to the election outcome?
Jesus Renzullo, Doctoral Researcher at the GIGA:
“The exclusion of several international observers, particularly from the European Union, represented an early sign that Maduro had decided to resort to fraud to retain power. The regional reaction to the elections has been overwhelmingly sceptical, and in favour of transparency and accountability. While Maduro’s traditional allies immediately recognised the result (Bolivia, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua), most of the Americas was at least sceptical of them and requested transparency. The call for for the latter was also echoed by the Carter Center, an international observer, and by governments like Mexico’s. Other countries like Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Panama have not recognised the result and demanded proof at least. This sees the region face off against Maduro, who is unlikely to provide credible evidence of his victory. In contrast to the situation in 2019, however, Maduro now has countries of the region like Brazil and Colombia willing to negotiate an ‘exit ramp’ for him, as a way to avoid further instability.”
Our experts will continue to closely monitor the situation in Venezuela, providing ongoing analysis and updates. Stay tuned for more insights and in-depth articles from GIGA researchers, available on this webpage.
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