At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, decision-makers warned that the pandemic might lead to more violent conflict in fragile states, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. This project engages in a mixed-methods approach to study related relationships.
Volkswagen Foundation, 2021-2022
The project enagages in one of the first comprehensive analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent conflicts.
It uses an innovative theoretical model of escalation as a result of the virus shock and employs a nested research design that combines cross-country regressions and pertinent case studies.
Our first round of analysis suggests that the pandemic contributes to conflict escalation. However, the most robust finding is that strict lockdowns increase "COVID-19 unrest", which forms a fraction of the violence only. Pre-pandemic fragility best explains a recent increase in violence in the region. However, there are indications that economic shocks will exacerbate existing distributional conflicts and elite power struggles in the future. This is best illustrated by the case studies of Ethiopia and South Africa where pandemic related effects like the postponing of an election (Ethiopia) and economic hardships by lockdowns (South Africa) contributed to esclation in 2020 and 2021 but were in themselves not the main causes of escalation.