European Governments and Covid-19: Unmasking the Nexus of Narratives and Policy Responses

Based on Pandemic narratives and policy responses: west European governments and Covid-19' by Amrita Narlikar and Cecilia Emma Sottilotta.

Summary and visualization by: Eduardo Valencia

Introduction

Why have governments with similar political institutions, cultures, and development levels reacted so differently to the COVID-19 pandemic?

The a key to explaining these policy variations lies in the heterogeneity of narratives different governments developed. These narratives can be categorized as existing within the following two continua:

1. Economic costs ←→ Human costs

2. Affecting only certain subgroups ←→ affecting all members of society

Additionally, governments made their response policies more stringent at different times with varying results. The paper thus examines the relationship between the two continua as it affects stringency levels, timing, and overall results.

Narratives are:

"a simple story or easily expressed explanation of events that many people want to bring up in conversation or on news or social media because it can be used to stimulate the concerns or emotions of others, and/or because it appears to advance self-interest."

Shiller, R. (2017). Narrative Economics. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2069.

For more on Narratives in International Political Economy and International Relations see: Amrita Narlikar's Poverty Narratives and Poverty Paradoxes in International Trade Negotiations and Beyond

Argument and Methodology

High levels of uncertainty enlarge the importance of narratives. Narratives are recognized as powerful tools for shaping public perceptions, especially during times of turmoil, such as the early months of the pandemic. Moreover, they can shape policies and legitimize them through cognitive biases. Europe, in contrast with other regions of the world (ex. East Asia) was relatively unfamiliar with preventive measures for airborne disease contagion. Covid-19 was a new virus with high levels of infectiousness and fatality rates. The pandemic thus presented a unique challenge marked by confusion and an evolving understanding of the virus.

Two hypotheses are proposed to explain the variation in policy responses among similar countries:

• Hypothesis 1: When political leaders emphasize economic rather than human costs in their narratives, policy stringency is delayed.

• Hypothesis 2: When political leaders frame the threat narrowly, affecting only specific sub-groups, rather than society as a whole, policy stringency is delayed.

The study employs a two-step investigation.

1. A broad analysis is conducted on the narratives and policy measures of 15 EU member states (pre 2004 to enhance comparability). This analysis uses speeches by heads of governments and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker to measure the emphasis on economic costs and the framing of the threat as 'othering.' A control variable, ICU bed capacity above global average, is included.

2. The paper presents in-depth case studies of Sweden and Greece to provide nuanced insights into the development of pandemic narratives and policy responses. These cases are chosen for their stark contrasts and unexpected outcomes.

• Econ (Economic Emphasis): binary variable that assesses whether a government's narrative emphasizes economic considerations or not.

• Othering (Narrow Framing): binary variable that examines whether a government's narrative narrows the scope of those heavily affected by the pandemic or not.

• ICU Beds (Healthcare Capacity): binary variable that assesses whether the number of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds in a country's healthcare system is above global average.

• Early Stringency (Policy Response): binary variable that assesses whether the speed and rigor of a government's policy response to the pandemic score at least 30 in the OxCGRT database

The OxCGRT database collects information on policy responses to the pandemic (based on 17 indicators such as travel restrictions, school closures, restrictions on gatherings), which are combined and rescaled to provide a value between 0 and 100 where 100 is the strictest response.

Certain caveats are in order:

• The study does not assess the success or failure of the policy response.

• The sociological roots of the narratives are not investigated, these are not the dependent variables.

• There might be feedback loops from narratives and policy responses, but these are assumed constant for the purposes of the study

Overview of Narratives and Policy Responses

Background

Italy was the first European country to suffer a significant surge in COVID-19 cases, leading to the implementation of unprecedented restrictions in early March 2020. This early experience set the stage for other Western European countries to determine their policy as the pandemic spread.

Tip: For exact numbers on each axis hover over each flag

Key Insights

• Countries that delayed stringent restrictions (e.g., Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the UK) tended to have relatively higher casualties per population, with the exception of Germany. On the other hand, countries that reacted with stringent measures earlier generally recorded fewer casualties per population, except for Italy.

• Policies tended to be less stringent when political leaders emphasized the economic costs of containment measures and 'othered' specific sub-groups in their narratives. Conversely, when the official narrative did not emphasize economic costs and framed the threat as affecting all members of society, policies tended to be more stringent.

Discussion of Results:

Hypothesis 1: Emphasis on Economic Costs: The paper finds that when political leaders emphasized the economic costs of containment measures in their narratives, policy responses lacked early stringency. For instance, the Dutch government's narrative, as exemplified by PM Mark Rutte, highlighted the economic impact and presented options that prioritized 'herd immunity' over strict containment measures. This led to delayed and less stringent policy interventions.

Hypothesis 2: Narrow Framing of the Threat: The paper also supports the second hypothesis, which posits that policy responses lacked early stringency when governments framed the threat narrowly, suggesting it would affect specific sub-groups rather than society as a whole. For example, French President Emmanuel Macron and Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez adopted narratives that emphasized the vulnerability of certain groups, such as the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. This 'othering' of vulnerable populations corresponded to policy responses that were not stringent in the early stages of the pandemic.

Key Takeaways and Conclusions:

• Narratives Shape Policy Responses

  The study's findings highlight the correlation between narratives and policy responses during crises. Governments that focused on economic costs and 'othering' vulnerable groups often experienced delays in implementing stringent measures. Conversely, those that prioritized human costs and societal impact tended to take early, stringent actions.

• Contrasting Case Studies

  Sweden's approach highlighted the importance of sustainability and economic preservation, while Greece prioritized public health, intergenerational responsibility, and international comparisons. These cases illustrate the profound influence of narratives.

• Policy Implications

  Understanding the link between narratives and policy responses is crucial for effective crisis management. As the pandemic continues, these insights can inform decision-making for better public health outcomes and economic recovery.

• Future Research

  Future research should delve deeper into the role of scientific advisors and explore its influence on policy dynamics. For example: who were the scientific advisors whose expertise political authorities chose to follow, and why?

• Source: (Sottilotta & Narlikar)

Conclusion:

In underscoring the correlation between narratives and policy responses, this study sheds light on the pivotal role of storytelling in governance during a global crisis. It demonstrates the usefulness of categorizing political narratives within different continua.