German Institute for Global and Area Studies | Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien

German Institute for Global and Area Studies | Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien

DEEN

The (In)stability of Presidential Term Limits in Africa and Latin America: Assessing the Impact of Tenure-Rule Reforms on the Political Regime

  • Many countries in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa (re-)introduced term limits during the third wave of democratization as a democratic safeguard against personal rule and power abuses. Since then, term limits have been contested by a plethora of reform attempts. In this project, we take a longitudinal view on these sometimes recurrent reforms and analyse their repercussions for institutionalization, democratization and autocratization.
    DFG, 2017-2021

    Team

    Dr. Charlotte Heyl

    Associate

    Elena Martínez Barahona

    Markus Böckenförde

    Julia Leininger

    Timothy Power

    Research Questions

    Presidential term limits are a constitutional restriction on the number of terms that the directly elected head of state may serve in presidential or semi-presidential systems of government. Many countries of the world adopted or reinstated term-limit provisions during the third wave of democratisation that swept the world in the 1980s and 1990s, demonstrating the widespread belief that limiting presidential stays in power strengthens democracy. However, term-limit rules were later challenged, and in some cases they were even modified recurrently. In fact, the subsequent contestation of the term-limit rule became a worldwide phenomenon that often led to deep politico-institutional crises.

    The project investigates the following research questions:
    - What is the impact of presidential term limit reforms on the type and quality of political regimes in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa?
    - How did the prevalence of term limit rules develop in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa since the third wave of democratisation?
    - How were term limit reforms undertaken? What institutions and actors intervened in the process of term limit reforms? How transparent and democratic was the reform process?
    - How does the quality of the reform process influence the political regime?

    Contribution to International Research

    The project undertakes the first systematic cross-regional analysis of the influence of term-limit reforms on the type and quality of the political regime. The two regions, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, comprise together the majority of presidential and semi-presidential regimes in the world.

    A further innovation of the project is the examination of the variety of term-limit reforms, thus the prolongation of presidential terms as well as the shortening of presidential terms. Moreover, the paths of the reform processes are examined in detail to grasp how the character of the process influences the political regime

    Research Design and Methods

    The project applies a mixed-methods research design:
    - construction of an original and comprehensive dataset of term limit reforms in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa
    - sequence analysis and multivariate regressions
    - comparative case studies

    Preliminary Findings

    Term limit reforms are commonly seen as a risk to democracy, since stable institutions are considered essential for democratic consolidation, while term-limit eliminations are associated with processes of autocratization. To empirically investigate reform paths across regions we apply the method of sequence analysis. We find that the stability of term-limit rules is more prevalent than expected, but that this stability sometimes masks institutional ineffectiveness in authoritarian regimes. Rule instability induced by frequent reforms can be part of a piecemeal path towards autocratization, but it can also reflect an open-ended tug of war between authoritarian tendencies and democratic resistance.

    Project Publications

    Edited Volume | Routledge | 2023

    Contested, Violated but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

    This book generates new empirical and theoretical insights by bringing together the scholarship on Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, providing context-bound intraregional research as well as long-term perspectives for the study of term-limit change. The chapters were originally published as a special issue of Democratization.

    Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

    Lead Research Fellow / Co-Leader of the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies (ad interim)

    Dr. Charlotte Heyl

    Associate

    Democratization | 2022

    Contested, Violated but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa: Introduction to Special Issue

    The term limits of presidents as a crucial institutional feature to safeguard democracy have often been contested by incumbents. The authors of this article argue that bringing together knowledge on Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa provides new empirical and theoretical insights.

    Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

    Lead Research Fellow / Co-Leader of the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies (ad interim)

    Dr. Charlotte Heyl

    Associate

    Democratization | 2022

    Sequences of Presidential-Term-Limit Reforms: Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa

    In this article the authors take a longitudinal view on presidential-term-limit reforms in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa since the third wave of democratization. Many countries (re)introduced the measure as a democratic safeguard against abuse of power; since then, it has been repeatedly challenged.

    Dr. Charlotte Heyl

    Associate

    Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

    Lead Research Fellow / Co-Leader of the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies (ad interim)

    Democratization | Taylor and Francis | 2022

    Special Issue: Contested, Violated but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

    The term limits of presidents as a crucial institutional feature to safeguard democracy have often been contested by incumbents. The authors of this special issue argue that bringing together knowledge on Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa provides new empirical and theoretical insights.

    Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

    Lead Research Fellow / Co-Leader of the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies (ad interim)

    Dr. Charlotte Heyl

    Associate

    Chapter in Edited Volume | 06/2019

    Senegal (1970-2016): presidential term limit reforms never come alone

    Dr. Charlotte Heyl

    Associate

    Related Content

    Senegal (1970-2016): Presidential Term Limit Reforms Never Come Alone

    Conference | 27/06/2018 - 30/06/2018

    Senegal (1970-2016): Presidential Term Limit Reforms Never Come Alone

    Conference of the Association of African Studies in Germany (VAD e.V.), Leipzig Organisers: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Speaker)

    Dr. Charlotte Heyl

    Associate

    Presidential Re-Election Sequences in Latin America

    Conference | 06/02/2019

    Presidential Re-Election Sequences in Latin America

    Coloquio Iberoamericano, Heidelberg Organisers: Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Speaker)

    Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

    Lead Research Fellow / Co-Leader of the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies (ad interim)

    Impeachment Threat and Presidential Instability in Comparative Perspective

    Conference | 24/05/2019 - 27/05/2019

    Impeachment Threat and Presidential Instability in Comparative Perspective

    LASA2019, Boston Organisers: Latin American Studies Association Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Speaker)

    Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

    Lead Research Fellow / Co-Leader of the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies (ad interim)

    Notification

    Sign up to receive email notifications about GIGA activities

    Social Media

    Follow us

    German Institute for Global and Area Studies | Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien
    Logo Total E Quality
    Logo Hamburger Allianz Fuer Familien
    Logo Leibniz
    Alt Text Footer Logo Hamburg Ministry of Science, Research, Equalities and Districts
    Logo Auswertiges Amt