Das Rennen um die Macht in Nahost

Der "Arabische Frühling" hat nicht nur in einzelnen arabischen Ländern für soziale und politische Umbrüche gesorgt, sondern auch das Machtgefüge innerhalb der Region erschüttert. Am GIGA findet seit vielen Jahren intensive und international vernetzte Forschung zu regionalen Machtkonstellationen und der Rolle von Gestaltungsmächten statt. Deshalb hat sich eine Gruppe von WissenschaftlerInnen des GIGA gemeinsam mit renommierten ausländischen KollegInnen daran gemacht, die durch den "Arabischen Frühling" veränderten regionalen Rahmenbedingungen und die Chancen der verschiedenen Anwärter auf eine Führungsrolle in Nahost zu untersuchen. Das Ergebnis liegt seit Dezember 2014 in dem von Palgrave Macmillan (New York) veröffentlichten Buch "Regional Powers in the Middle East: New Constellations after the Arab Revolts", herausgegeben von Henner Fürtig, vor. Inhalt In many ways, the Middle East has a history for being perceived as an exceptional region. This applies not least to the power-structure of the region. The concept of regional power stipulates that conflicts regarding the emergence of regional powers have been increasing significantly after the end of the Cold War. Yet, although the Middle East is a region full of conflict, no – uncontested – regional power has emerged since Egypt’s defeat in the Six-Day-War of 1967 and the country’s hegemony found its very end with President Nasser’s death in 1970. Thus, the actual absence of one distinct regional power in the Middle East may be considered a central puzzle in regional politics. Compared with Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa or East Asia which has generated acknowledged regional powers such as Brazil, South Africa or China after the end of the Cold War, the Middle East seemed to represent a "deviant" and exceptional case. Although several states (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, Turkey) have been contenders for regional leadership, the particular power constellation in the Middle East has so far prevented the emergence of a single regional power. The central question of this book was therefore to ask for the reasons behind this astonishing "anomaly". Furthermore, it addresses questions such as: How regional actors exerted regional politics in the absence of a regional power? What are the opportunity and constraints of regional political action in the absence of a regional power? In which ways influence international powers regional politics and what are the implications of the region’s power structure for the role of the Middle East in world politics? This set of question is particularly relevant when related to the breathtaking upheavals in the Middle East which began in December 2010 and which swept away long-standing autocracies in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, still challenging a number of so-far rather stable autocratic regimes. Although the final outcome of these upheavals is hardly predictable, political transformations in some countries have been so significant that they will inevitably influence the regional power balance. Might the "Arab Spring" lead to a situation in which a single actor will be able to assume or re-assume a regional leadership role? Will the region return to "normality" with regard to other world regions? The first chapter takes up these questions in light of contemporary discussions in the field. Then the book continues with detailed case studies in which the pros and cons of selected contenders for regional power are analyzed and discussed. The concluding chapter synthesizes the major finding of these case studies in order to find a tentative answer to the major question about the "anomaly" of the regional power structure. In terms of case studies, this book is unique in its attempt to deal with each case from a "pairing" perspective, i.e. presenting an external and an internal view. One scholar from each of the analyzed countries contrasts his or her findings with those of researchers from the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA). In this way, the editor wanted to reach a more profound and complex assessment of Middle Eastern politics, presenting an integrated analysis of a globally embedded region.