Performance and Dynamics of Micro and Small Firms in Developing Countries

Recent empirical work on MSEs has shown that marginal returns to capital stocks in MSEs can be high initially; yet, they also tend to decline rapidly with higher capital stocks. This might indicate capital scarcity driving high marginal returns initially, but evidence from a number of randomised cash transfers suggests that it is not the only factor. We thus consider the role of other major contributors. For one, the stagnation of many MSEs may also be caused by low productivity and the lack of innovation. There is, however, hardly any empirical literature that examines innovation and technology adoption in urban MSEs in low income countries and the project intends to fill this gap. Secondly, one of the main reasons for the lack of innovation and, indeed, any major capital investment may be the risk associated with doing so. While entrepreneurial risk attitudes have received a fair amount of attention in the empirical literature, less is known about the effects of risk on performance. The project offers new perspectives on this issue by analysing entrepreneurs’ vulnerability, which in turn can constitute a major obstacle to investment. Third, part of the reason why retained earnings are not re-invested is simply that entrepreneurs do not manage to save enough. Our project contributes to an improved knowledge of strategies to combat this problem.

We study MSE performance using state-of-the-art micro-econometric methods. This includes in particular differences-in-differences and instrumental variable specifications, as common in the impact evaluation literature. The quantitative analyses are informed by own panel survey data from Uganda. The first wave sampled 450 MSEs and was implemented in 2012. Five consecutive survey rounds were implemented in 2013-2017. During the project, the survey will be extended to a total of seven annual waves with changing foci, but a consistent core questionnaire. While panel data on MSEs is very scarce, our data has another unique feature, as it combines firm surveys with lab-in-the-field experiments on risk and time preferences and overconfidence, as well as randomised experiments on cash transfers, financial literacy, and technology use.